My ECU/Cincy writeup and pick

09/01/03 East Carolina Pirates at Cincinnati Bearcats (-8/56.5)

12:00 PM EST

Forecast: Thunderstorms (High 79)


Labor Day kicks off with a battle between Conference USA foes East Carolina and Cincinnati. I will give you my analysis of this game and my pick and I can’t guarantee it’s going to win but I can guarantee that I put time and effort into this analysis. Here we go:

COACHES

ECU- John Thompson: First year as head coach. Longtime defensive coordinator at various schools, most recently served as defensive coordinator at Florida where his pass defense ranked 7th in the nation.

Cincinnati – Rick Minter: 10 yrs at UC with an all-time record of 48-56-1. 2nd all-time in victories at UC and has led his Bearcats to bowl games 4 of the last 6 years. 2002 team was CUSA champions (7-7 overall/6-2 conference).

ADVANTAGE: Cincinnati – Minter’s experience outweighs Thompson’s defensive prowess.


QUARTERBACK
ECU – Desmond Robinson (Jr.): Robinson has some game experience appearing in 8 games last year (a plan initiated by ex-head coach Steve Logan to get his backup QB game experience) but he really has very little extended game experience (more than a series here and there). He did play very well coming off the bench against UAB last year (12-20, 115 yds and 1 TD) and based on his spring numbers (24-38 and only 1 INT) he beat out expected starter Paul Troth (I’m sure Panther can give you more info on this situation than I can) but he hasn’t started a game since high school.

Cincinnati – Gino Guidugli (Jr.): If you follow college football you probably know the name. Guidugli has his name on many UC passing records already and will look to break even more this year with a new corps of receivers. He is a pre-season Davey O’Brien candidate (given to the nation’s top QB) and has had a lot of success in Minter’s offense leading the Cats to 8 comeback wins in his career. Last year he lit up ECU for 323 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 42-26 win.

ADVANTAGE: Cincinnati - Gino (‘nuff said).


RUNNING BACKS
ECU – The Pirates get a huge blow at running back with the loss of (IMO) their best offensive player Art Brown to a knee injury. Brown’s list of achievements include pre-season All-CUSA, Doak Walker Award candidate, averaged 103 ypg last season (1029 yds in 10 games) while scoring 17 TD’s (14 rushing) good for 6th in the nation in scoring. Replacing Brown at tailback is junior Marvin Townes. Townes rushed for 304 yards last year on 76 carries last season. Townes was also CUSA All-Freshman selection in 2001. ECU’s Fullback spot should be fun to watch with former LB Vonta Leach (rated 20th fullback in the nation by The Sporting News) who showed he can carry the ball with a 14 carry 108 yd performance in the spring game. Leach is a senior who was primarily used as a blocking back in 2002 but should contribute more with the loss of Brown.

Cincinnati – The Bearcat running attack starts with junior halfback Richard Hall. Hall transferred from Ohio State and saw action in all games (limited with only 59 carries for 264 yds). He also led the Bearcats in rushing average (4.5 ypc). At FB Sr. Booker Vann will continue his duties as primarily a blocking back. The Kent State transfer played in all games for Cincy last year so he has game experience (1 start).

ADVANTAGE: Push with a slight edge to ECU (Leach could have a bust out season but none of the backs here on either side are proven).

WIDE RECEIVERS
ECU - The Pirate receiving corps is led by standout Sr. Terrance Copper. Copper had 30 receptions for 395 yds last year and needs 36 catches to put himself in the top 10 on ECU’s all time receptions list. He’s an ironman playing in every game of his career (36 including 2 bowls) and has shined in ECU’s spring and fall practices. Jr. Demarcus Fox will join Copper in the starting lineup. Fox only has 3 catches in his career so this will be a learning experience for him. The ECU offense adds a tight end this season in the form of redshirt freshman Kort Shankweiler. Shankweiler was originally recruited as a QB but has been moved to tight end and has put on 20 pounds to help him get accustomed to the role.

Cincinnati – The Cats lose a lot here to graduation as the top 3 wideouts all leave (responsible for 428 catches, 5,984 yards and 38 TD’s). The void is expected to be filled by Jr’s George Murray and Kevin Hazel and Sophomore Derrick Ross. Murray has the most experience and can run a 4.41 40 so he has speed. Hazel played in every game last year (sparingly) and although Ross had only 4 receptions last year he did average 19.5 ypc. If this group struggles there are a couple of freshman speed burners waiting in the wings and they could see time (Mike Daniels and Bill Poland). Watch for Daniels as he should return punts at a MINIMUM and could break one.

ADVANTAGE: ECU because of Copper but not by much as both sides have a lot of new faces.

OFFENSIVE LINE
ECU – A strength of the Pirates this season is their veteran O line. You can’t mention the ECU O line without talking about Senior stud Brian Rimpf. Rimpf (6-6, 324) is a monster offensive tackle with plenty of accolades. 2nd team 2003 Pre-Season All-American, CUSA Pre-Season All-American, 1st Team CUSA All-American the last two years, on the watch lists for the Rotary Lombardi Award and the Outland Trophy (for a 2nd straight year) and rated #16 offensive tackle in the nation by The Sporting News. He has shut down NFL standouts like Julius Peppers and Dwight Freeney in the past. Rimpf is not the only ECU lineman with national recognition. His partner in the middle Sr. Doug White is rated the #8 center in the nation by TSN. All 5 ECU lineman are upper classmen and except for RT Brandon Pope (coming off an injury, started all games his sophomore year and came off the bench the last 7 games of 2002) started the majority of last year’s games. Average size of ECU’s line (6-3 306).

Cincinnati – Best lineman for the Bearcats would have to be Jr. LG Kyle Takavitz (rated best pass blocker in the nation by Lindy’s). Takavitz moves to guard after starting every game at left tackle a year ago. Up there with Takavitz is Sr. center Josh Shneyderov. Shneyderov has started 25 of the last 26 games for the Bearcats and has been a stalwart at center. Average size of UC’s line (6-3 291).

ADVANTAGE: ECU by far here but the key is how do they match up with the opponent’s defensive lines.


DEFENSIVE LINE
ECU – Sr. DT Damane Duckett (6-7 289) is the best lineman on this line and should be a major force in stopping the run for this team. 45 tackles a year ago...2nd for ECU linemen. Starting next to him in the middle is Sr. Derek Helms. Helms is a 3 year letterman who is finally getting his chance to start. Helms had 29 tackles a year ago. On one end will be So. Guy Whimper. Whimper is making his first ever start and is coming off an All-CUSA freshman team year where he had 17 tackles. On the other end will either be Jr. Ike Emodi or So. Sammie Walden. Emodi made 2 starts last year and had 9 tackles while Walden has impressed coaches enough to make him a consideration. Average size of ECU’s line (6-4 273).

Cincinnati – Jr. DE Trent Cole is the lineman to watch here. Cole is the only returning starter on this line and was a force at DT last year. Cole is on the Ted Hendricks Award watch list, a consensus pre-season CUSA All-American, had 87 tackles (12 for loss) and 5 sacks. He will be joined by newcomer Jr. DT Mike Wright making his UC debut after rehabbing a knee last year. Wright has put on 40 lbs. to take the inside spot. Sr. Ka’Son Love (medical redshirt last season) and Jr. DE Andre Frazier (team co-leader in sacks) round out the line. Average size of UC’s line (6-4 244).

ADVANTAGE: ECU again but close. The problem is going to be the enormous size difference for ECU’s O Line vs UC’s D line. UC better line up Cole on the opposite side of Rimpf because Brian could take him out of the game.


LINEBACKERS
ECU – They look to be in great shape at LB with the return of Sophomore’s Josh Chilsom and Chris Moore. Chilsom started 8 games last year and is ECU’s top returning tackler (74). He also had 4 sacks as a redshirt freshman (ECU rs fr. Record). Moore had 19 tackles in one game against Duke and was 2nd team freshman All-American in 2002. Moore also set the freshman record at ECU for tackles for loss (10). He also had 72 tackles in 10 games but suffered a knee injury and missed 3 games (and spring practice). ECU coaches report Moore has looked good in fall practices.

Cincinnati – A veteran group of LB’s return in senior’s Jason Russel and Tyjuan Hagler and Jr. Jamar Enzor. Russel had 58 tackles last season, 8 for loss. Hagler started 13 games and had 79 tackles (18 for loss). Hagler terrorized ECU a year ago with 14 tackles. Enzor had 51 solo tackles (101 total) and 15 for loss in splitting the MLB spot.

ADVANTAGE: UC due to experience but ECU’s LB’s aren’t pitiful….just young.


SECONDARY
ECU – Starts and ends with Sr. Rover Travis Heath. Heath is an all-conference candidate who makes plays causing havoc by forcing fumbles and INT’s. He’s scored a defensive TD the last 2 seasons, including a career game vs TCU last year (2 forced (and recovered) fumbles, 1 returned for a TD, 1 INT). Joining Heath will be Sr. CB Brandon Rainer and Jr. CB Donald Whitehead. They’re good not great…Rainer has experience (10 starts, 41 tackles, 7 pass breakups) and Whitehead always shows promise but is injury prone.

Cincinnati – Well established secondary anchored by Sr. CB Zach Norton. 3 year starter with 52 tackles (6 for loss) and 2 INT’s last year (one being a 30 yd TD return vs ECU). Safeties are very involved with Jr. Doug Monaghan’s 88 tackles being good for 4th on the team. FS Sr. Franklin Callicott had 19 tackles in one game last year vs UAB and 17 tackles and a 43 yd fumble return for TD in the New Orleans Bowl.

ADVANTAGE: UC has more playmakers here. Heath is one to watch for ECU though.


SPECIAL TEAMS
ECU – Lost the school’s all-time scorer in kicker Kevin Miller to graduation. Walk on Jr. Cameron Broadwell will kick while Redshirt Freshman Ryan Dougherty will try to punt. Coooper should share time on punt return duties and Fox should be the primary kick returner.

Cincinnati – Also replacing a stalwart kicker in Johnathan Ruffin with K/P Chet Ervin. Ervin may have help in Jr. Kyle McDaniel if he falters. Sr. Tedric Harwell will handle kick return duties (he has been a special teams standout) and WR Murray will handle punt returns.

ADVANTAGE: Push (returns should be good for both teams and kicking should be an adventure)


INTANGIBLES
ECU – Owns UC all-time (12-3) but very poor in season openers (3-9). 1-5-1 on the road ATS last year. 0-2 when opening with the team that beat them on the last game last year.

UC – 2-0 on previous Labor Day games (both CUSA opponents). 15-10 ATS as home fav L25. 4-1 SU L5 openers. 3-0 SU Monday games. Guidugli convicted of misdemeanor assault in the summer.

ADVANTAGE: UC (ECU not the same team as years past with new coach and new system)


ECU wins in WR’s, O Line and D Line
UC wins in Coach, QB, LB, Secondary and Intangibles
Even in RB and Special Teams


My prediction: The ECU O line is the biggest reason to think ECU will be in this game. The problem I have with the Pirates this season is the inexperience at the skill positions and with a new head coach and new systems to put in place they won’t have the continuity in this game like the Bearcats will. Guidugli will make few mistakes and they should have success against an ECU team that will need time to get used to new coach John Thompson’s system. A lot of info up there that’s starting to run together for me at 4:30 AM but I’ve made my be(t) and I’m going to lie in it.

Sorry Panther!

Cincy -8

 

[TheGeneral+]

Nice write-up.

Thanks

 

[betmonkey]

Some more info from Sportsnetwork.com



The Sports Network

DATE & TIME: Monday, September 1st, 12:00 p.m. (et).

FACTS & STATS: Site: Nippert Stadium (35,000) -- Cincinnati, Ohio. Television: ESPN. Home Record: ECU 0-0, Cincinnati 0-0. Away Record: ECU 0-0, Cincinnati 0-0. Neutral Record: ECU 0-0, Cincinnati 0-0. Conference Record: ECU 0-0, Cincinnati 0-0. Series Record: East Carolina leads, 12-3.

GAME NOTES: The Cincinnati Bearcats begin their 116th season of football action on Labor Day when they take on the East Carolina Pirates in Conference- USA action from Nippert Stadium. The Pirates enter the 2003 season with a new head coach in John Thompson, who inherits a squad that finished a dismal 4-8 last season. The team lost all of its non-conference games, but did manage to finish a respectable 4-4 in the league. This year's team returns 13 starters, including several key players on offense. As for Cincinnati, it returns only 10 starters back from last year's team, which finished 7-7 overall and was co- champions of C-USA with a 6-2 mark. The title was only the second in the school's history and the first since 1964. With the co-championship came a berth in the New Orleans Bowl where the Bearcats were upset, 24-19 by Sun Belt champion North Texas. Cincinnati is the only team in Conference-USA history to finish in the top two, three seasons in a row (finishing second in both 2000 and '01), but a fourth season may not be likely with only a few key players returning. Today's game marks the 16th all-time meeting between the two schools with ECU holding a 12-3 advantage. In the last game of C-USA action last season, it was Cincinnati that defeated the Pirates, 42-26. However, the Bearcats are just 2-5 versus ECU in Cincinnati.

With a new head coach comes a much-needed new offensive scheme for the Pirates. Traditionally a passing team, ECU had the pieces to become a strong run team in 2003, but an injury to preseason All-Conference-USA tailback Art Brown had put a dapper on that. Brown rushed for 1,029 yards and 14 touchdowns last season, but injured his right knee in practice and will miss the season. With his loss, junior Marvin Townes is slated to get the majority of the carries. Last year, Townes finished second on the team with 304 yards and two touchdowns. Taking over at quarterback will be junior Desmond Robinson. The junior is a mobile quarterback who will add a rushing element to the position. He played in a few games last season, throwing for 250 yards and two interceptions. With an experienced offensive line and shorter passing game this season, Robinson should be able to limit his mistakes. As for the wideouts, the team lost its top two from a year ago, but four players with experience are back. Terrance Copper, an elusive receiver, caught 30 passes for 395 yards last season, while possession receiver Richard Hourigan grabbed 19 balls for 185 yards. Tight end Tutu Moye will also see more action after pulling down 16 passes for 185 yards a year ago.

With only five starters returning from last year's defensive unit, the Pirates appear to be in bad shape. However, in 2002 the defense ranked a pathetic 106th in the nation, so some new faces certainly could help. Up front the team returns only one starter in tackle Damne Duckett. The 6-7 300-pound Duckett made 45 stops last season, but wasn't able to record a sack. As for the linebackers, two solid performers are back in Chris Moore and Josh Chilsom. Moore was one of the top freshman linebackers in the country last season, finishing with 72 tackles and 3.5 sacks, despite missing the final three games with an injury. As for Chilsom, he finished fourth on the team with 74 tackles and first with four sacks. The secondary welcomes back a pair of starters in strong safety Travis Heath and cornerback Reicko Jones. Heath, a hard hitter, made 45 tackles last season, while Jones made 43 stops and broke up six passes. Overall, this defensive unit has a lot of work to do if it hopes to improve on the 445.7 ypg of total offense it allowed in 2002.

In 2002, Cincinnati racked up nearly 400 total yards per game, ranking the squad 33rd in the nation in total offense. This season the team returns only a few key players from a year ago, but one of them is Second Team All-Conference quarterback Gino Guidugli. A solid passer, Guidugli threw for a conference- best 3,543 yards and 22 touchdowns. However, he was also picked off 21 times, including five times against North Texas in the New Orleans Bowl. Guidugli will be throwing to a whole new corps of wideouts, as Cincy's top four receivers from a year ago have departed. Filling in this year will be former backup quarterback George Murray II, who caught 26 passes for 278 yards last season. Another void that needs to be filled is at the tailback spot as the departure of DeMarco McCleskey, who led the team last year with 1,361 yards and 15 touchdowns, has left a huge void. Richard Hall, his backup last season, will assume the starting tailback position after rushing for 264 yards and three touchdowns last season. Hall has good speed and with three starters returning on the offensive line he may be ready to become a star in C-USA.

With the 21st-ranked defense in the nation last season, the Bearcats had the ability to stop teams at will. This year may be a different story as the team is only returning five starters from a unit that allowed just 318.1 total ypg last season. Anchoring the defensive line will be Trent Cole, who was an undersized tackle last season. He will now move to his natural spot on the outside where he can utilize his strength and quickness. Despite playing out of position last season, Cole was still able to make 87 tackles, five sacks and post and 12 TFLs. Cole will have to fill the shoes of the departed two- time All-Conference pick Antwan Peek, who led the Bearcats in '02 with 100 tackles, 15 TFLs and six sacks. Leading the linebacking corps will be Jamar Enzor, who made 91 tackles and 4.5 sacks last season. The group also returns outside linebacker Jason Russell and Tyjuan Hagler. The two combined for 137 tackles, including 26 for losses. In the secondary, two quality starters return in strong safety Doug Monaghan and cornerback Zach Norton. Monaghan, who recorded 101 tackles in his freshman year, made 88 stops last season. Norton is the team's top pass defender and broke up a team-leading 17 passes in '02. While there is certainly spots to fill, there are enough players still around with experience to field a respectable defense.

This game will mean a little more than most opening games considering it is a conference tilt and nobody wants to start off with a loss in league action. Cincinnati typically fields a solid team year after year and this season should be no different. ECU struggled in 2002 despite a veteran team and now will have to rely on some inexperienced players. The bottom line is the Bearcats simply have more talent and should be able to win this one at home.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Cincinnati 38, East Carolina 21

 

[Dante]

NICE write up..good luck

 

[drunkguy]

great write up. I'm still on the fence, but thanks for the info

 

[NYReb]

Wow. That's some piece of writing. Good luck!

 

It's looking pretty good right now but still a lot of football left. The long drives by UC are killing ECU's defense.

Gilmore just made an excellent point. Robinson is not spreading the ball around. They're making it too easy for UC. They'll get better but it's a lot to ask this team to go on the road with a new QB and new system and play with the CUSA champs in their own house.

Just my .02